Research Assistant Fellow, Middle East Studies Center- Jordan
The report addresses the crisis of weak political participation in the Arab world from 2013 to 2024, particularly following the disillusionment with the Arab Spring that began in 2011. It explores this crisis's background, dimensions, and repercussions on the democratic process and elections, emphasizing its relationship with current governments' political and popular legitimacy.
In addition, the report examines the risks associated with this crisis, mainly the frustration and despair it generates among the youth and future generations. It investigates the reasons behind the increasing abstention from political participation, analyzing the impact on society, the state, economic development, social relations, and the level of trust between the ruling regime and the various political and social forces.
The report also identifies key internal and external parties involved in the crisis, revealing how they positively and negatively influenced it. It outlines possible scenarios for the evolution of this crisis, explaining the circumstances that could lead to each scenario and their implications for the Arab world. The report evaluates these possibilities using various criteria and determinants and anticipates necessary transformations that could enhance political participation amid ongoing regional changes.
Further, these transformations could significantly impact the crisis and may lead to a shift towards increased political participation. It cites the recent developments in Syria and its geopolitical context as indicators of potential change.
The report examines the options available to parties involved in the crisis, particularly regarding the potential for positive transformation. It considers how these transformations might manifest based on the political systems and prevailing customs in each Arab country, whether they are monarchies, republics, or other forms of governance.
While many analysts and experts view the ruling Arab elites as largely unwilling to expand freedoms and political participation, the report argues that this stance may be vulnerable to change due to shifting geopolitical dynamics, the developments of the Palestinian issue, and transformations in Syria.
Based on detailed analyses, the report proposes strategies for addressing this crisis by engaging the youth and embracing change within each country and its surroundings. Such change might prevent extremist groups from exploiting the crisis to gain support and recruit young people for violent activities. This situation urges ruling elites to reconsider their approaches and implement gradual, well-considered transformations to promote broader and more meaningful political participation in elections and decision-making processes. Such an approach is tailored to the capabilities and contexts of each form of Arab governance. The report concludes with several key recommendations that serve as vital catalysts for the transformation process.
The report was issued in full in December 2024 under No. (27) among the reports of the Arab Crisis Team- ACT at the Middle East Studies Center (MESC) in Jordan.
Keywords: Keywords: political participation, governments, election, political parties, external parties, the Arab world, democracy, ruling elite, political legitimacy.
