This article deals with the change in Syria represented by the fall of the regime after 54 years of rule. It explores the implications and effects on the vital geopolitical environment surrounding Syria. It examines the growth of political, economic and strategic incentives in this environment. The article, also, investigates a number of new indicators on how the expected interactions in the geopolitical environment towards the hot issues of the region and the new leadership in Syria would emerge.
In terms of the Syrian case itself, the article argues that the disciplined statements of the leaders of the revolution and the interim government could be considered as reasonable starting point for thinking about the future of the Syrian state and its foreign relations. These statements included reassurances to cooperate with its Arab and Islamic neighbors regarding all common fields including the security concerns. The article addressed many opportunities to benefit from this change by most countries in the geopolitical environment surrounding Syria.
The article believes that Turkey has the greatest interest in stability in Syria strategically in terms of the security of its southern borders, economically (20 billion dollars in previous agreements) and when Syria is restored as a transit point for exports to Jordan, the Gulf States and Lebanon. Turkey was thus able to support the change to build a Syrian state that is an allied and friendly in the coming decades.
As for Iran, although many analysts consider Iran the biggest loser in the expansionist and sectarian concept, the change gave Iran a new opportunity to unite with the interests of the Arab countries and Turkey in the Middle East. It also has the opportunity to gain benefits from the new Syrian economic and geopolitical dimension if it repositions itself according to this variable.
As for Lebanon, the new change provided the opportunity for the Lebanese economy to recover freely and grow from both sides for the benefit of the welfare and progress of the two countries. The new transformation has opened the way for the safe return of Syrian refugees who have posed a challenge that the Lebanese state has not accepted by most of its components. It also has created a state of safe for the Lebanese-Syrian borders that will be controlled in the future by joint protocols. Moreover, it has opened the door to free trade and the movement of trucks from Lebanon to Syria, Jordan, Turkey and the Gulf States.
As for Jordan, the process of change in Syria has achieved many interests and goals of Jordan. Yet, Jordan is supposed to view this change as a golden and historic opportunity to restore its economic, political and security role for its northern borders with Syria, stop drug smuggling to it and through it to the Gulf states, and eliminate the threat of extremist sectarian groups from its northern borders. The new change is opening up multiple economic opportunities for Jordan in Syria and through it to Lebanon, Turkey, Europe and the Gulf states.
As for Iraq, the new change in Syria has lifted from the security and economic burden due to Iraqi strategic relations with Iran. It lifted the financial burdens that are said to have reached tens of billions during the past decade in supporting the Iraqi militias fought in Syria as well as is support of the former regime. Therefore, the change in Syria provides a golden opportunity for Iraq to turn towards the typical, safe and prospective relationship with Syria to be based on mutual respect and commercial, economic and industrial integration.
As for Israel, it felt the danger of the new transformation for important considerations related to the thought and approach of the leadership of change and the sponsor or supporter of this main change, which is assumed Turkey. Israel is trying in circumventing ways to impose a fait accompli and pressure the new leadership to recognize the Israeli entity as a fait accompli and even normalize with it. It is believed widely in the Arab world that Israel will not miss any opportunity to interfere in Syrian politics and internal affairs without trying to tamper with it through any internal crisis that may arise later.
The article concludes that the transformation and change that took place in Syria in December 2024 provided many challenges and opportunities for the various countries of the geopolitical environment - the vital environment of the Syrian state. Such emerging change would be reflected on these countries according to their ability to invest in the available opportunities based on recognizing the new situation first and dealing with the Syrian state on an equal footing second.
On another level, the new transformation in Syria will have clear repercussions on the surrounding geopolitical environment in creating opportunities for internal change in these countries. Such change is supposed to be in favor of increasing the areas of freedoms and democratic orientations. It also includes stopping the persecution of dissenting opinions, and involving society with all its political, intellectual and social components on an equal footing in managing the country's affairs.
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